Air Liquide (AIRP.PA): Model Update - Electronics Momentum Supports Compounder Thesis

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Air Liquide (AIRP.PA): Model Update - Electronics Momentum Supports Compounder Thesis

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29 Jul 2026 00:00:00 ET │ 13 pages

Air Liquide (AIRP.PA)

Model Update - Electronics Momentum Supports Compounder Thesis

CITI'S TAKE

The negative reaction to the 1H update, despite accelerating growth and a

record backlog, likely reflects profit-taking and does not alter our positive

view on the stock’s mid-term compounding potential. While the October Buy

CMD should reinforce this thesis, we do not expect it to be a major catalyst. Price (28 Jul 26 17:30) €173.54

With only minor changes to forecasts, we note that Electronics is beginning

to drive upgrades while the performance in the Americas suggests that Target price €198.00↑

faster growth can lead to further margin expansion. from €190.91

Expected share price return 14.1%

What’s New? — Electronics is beginning to display its growth potential, which Expected dividend yield 1.6%bodes well for H2. However, achieving consensus expectations of c.4.5% growth in

2027 will likely require an improvement in the macro, as underlying volumes remain Expected total return 15.7%

negative. Encouragingly, multi-year highs in manufacturing PMIs and a positive Citi Market Cap €110,747M

Economic Surprise Index suggest such a scenario is plausible. A key question

US$125,902Mremains whether >4% growth will be enough to generate operating leverage that will

drive margin expansion beyond efficiency gains. The >200bps margin expansion in

the Americas, the fastest-growing region (+5% YoY), provides supportive evidence.

What does this mean for 2026E? — We raise our FY26 comparable growth forecast Price Performance

by 20bps to 3.1%, in-line with consensus, while leaving FY27 largely unchanged at (RIC: AIRP.PA, BB: AI FP)

4.2%.