Demonstrated Operational Progress, but Upward Catalysts Would Require a Faster Path to $10bn FCF; Remain EW

研报英文原文证据摘录

Demonstrated Operational Progress, but Upward Catalysts Would Require a Faster Path to $10bn FCF; Remain EW

IdeaM

Risk Reward – Boeing Co. (BA.N)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

Sales (mm) NA NA 109,261 115,320

EPS NA NA 5.30 9.14

EBITDA (mm) NA NA 10,558 13,994

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Global air traffic demand RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

737 MAX: Outstanding order book, recovery Supply Chain Constraints Ease Earlier than 0.75 from grounding, and airlines eligible for Expected EPS

cancellations BDS Execution Improves, Driving Higher than ($) (1.65) 1.52

787 unit cash generation Expected Margins (0.33)

F-15 Aircraft providing stable cash generation Investors Willing to Pay a Higher Multiple

KC-46A execution Despite Limited Visibility to Supply Chain 4,945

EBITDA

Easing 3,376 6,567

($, mm)

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE Incremental Orders for New Aircraft 4,588

0-10% Europe ex UK RISKS TO DOWNSIDE

0-10% India Supply Chain Constraints Sustain Longer than Sales / 99,135

0-10% Japan Expected Revenue 94,519 103,410

0-10% Latin America BDS Execution Missteps Continue ($, mm) 97,870

0-10% Mainland China Another Extraordinary Event

0-10% UK Geopolitical Risk

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates 10-20% China and India

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research 10-20% MEA

50-60% North America Inst. Owners, % Active 56.6%

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.4x

View explanation of regional hierarchies here

HF Sector Net Exposure 8.8%

MS ALPHA MODELS Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

1/5 24 Month 4/5 3 Month inconsistenttrends.