United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) 2Q26: 2H cadence wins the day, but the exit rate sets up a much better 2027

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United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) 2Q26: 2H cadence wins the day, but the exit rate sets up a much better 2027

28 July 2026

Price Target Change

David Vernon

+1 917 344 8333

Airfreight & Surface Transportation david.vernon@bernsteinsg.com

Justine WeissUnited Parcel Service Inc +1 917 344 8433

Rating justine.weiss@bernsteinsg.com

Outperform Specialist Sales

Steve Song

Price Target +1 917 344 8401

steve.song@bernsteinsg.com

UPS 131.00 USD (133.00 OLD)

United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) 2Q26: 2H cadence wins the day,

but the exit rate sets up a much better 2027

Top-line-driven 2Q adj. EPS beat ($1.76: +5% / +1% vs. cons. / us). 2H outlook more back-

Close Date 28 Jul 2026

end-loaded than anticipated (Exhibit 9) (and a bit softer than we were modeling). We take full

UPS Close Price (USD) 105.53

year numbers down ~1-2% — still ahead of consensus / FY26 EPS guide.

Price Target (USD) 131.00

Cadence kills. Again, shape of guide for the half disappoints as commentary implies UPS Upside/(Downside) 24%

is guiding 3Q down 5% and larger 4Q up 3% (Exhibit 9), with a 62% sequential adj. op. 52-Week Range 122.41/82.00

income ramp (Exhibit 10). On the other side of a weaker 3Q, this is being heavily discounted SPX 7,413.18

by the market. 3Q is below what we expected, but we note a sequential drop in volume into FYE Dec

resourcing for peak / suffering the last of the Amazon glide down effects which will take Div Yield 6.2%

a toll. Cost reduction efforts on track, and the inflection expected in 3Q seems be there (if Market Cap (USD) (M) 89,701

masked a bit by the exit from a period of restructuring). Annualization matters. Assuming EV (USD) (M) 113,753

UPS hits 2H guide, 2H profit annualized suggests jumping-off point for ‘27 EBIT north Performance YTD 1M 6M 12M

of $10B (+4% vs.