The Future Of Work Matters For Australia

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The Future Of Work Matters For Australia

Idea

July 29, 2026 02:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+MAustralia Macro+ | Asia Pacific Chris Nicol

Equity Strategist

The Future Of Work Matters Chris.Nicol@morganstanley.comChris Read +61 3 9256-8909

Equity Strategist and Australia Economist

Chris.Read@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-1513

For Australia Antony Conte

Antony.Conte@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-1544

Australia is an early test of how AI reshapes a services-heavy Isabel Black

economy. The first effects should appear in hiring, backfills and EquityIsabel.Black@morganstanley.comStrategist +61 2 9775-2519

junior roles before outright unemployment. The upside is higher Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

productivity and lower unit labour costs; the risk is weaker Rachel Fletcher, Ph.D.

income growth – a challenging RBA trade-off. EquityRachel.Fletcher@morganstanley.comStrategist +44 20 7677-4089

Key Takeaways

Our Future of Work Downunder report presents Australia as a clear AI transition

case.

A services-dominated economy where productivity is weak, labour costs remain

elevated, and AI adoption is high is a cocktail for change.

The labour market impact is concentrated in more churn than lay-offs, with

slower hiring, stricter backfill decisions and workforce redeployment emerging.

First effects will likely show up in vacancies, hiring intentions and graduate

recruitment before broad-based unemployment.

AI complicates the policy outlook for the RBA. Rising unemployment may

increasingly reflect productivity gains rather than cyclical weakness.

The Future Of Work Downunder: In our recent foundation report, we draw on

global AlphaWise analysis across two survey waves where multiple sectors are

covered and Australian companies are well represented.