STMicroelectronics (STMPA FP): Buy: Guidance wobbles, demand roars

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STMicroelectronics (STMPA FP): Buy: Guidance wobbles, demand roars

28 July 2026

STMicroelectronics (STMPA FP) EquitiesSemiconductors & Equipment

Buy: Guidance wobbles, demand roars France

◆ Recovery delayed, not derailed: 3Q26 outlook softer, but MAINTAIN BUY

demand signals stay strong with book-to-bill “close to 2”

TARGET PRICE (EUR) PREVIOUS TARGET (EUR)

◆ AI/Optics demand continues to rise, while distribution

81.00 84.00 inventory is now below target levels

◆ Maintain Buy with TP lowered to EUR81.00 (from EUR84.00) SHARE PRICE (EUR) UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE

46.76 +73.2%

Recovery a bit slower – but still coming through: STM reported a mixed set of (as of 24 Jul 2026)

2Q26 results and guided 3Q26 below our estimates (see STMicro: 2Q first take - A MARKET DATA

slower recovery with encouraging demand commentary, 23 Jul 2026). The outlook Market cap (EURm) 42,616 Free float 70%

Market cap (USDm) 48,446 BBG STMPA FP

was a clear disappointment versus recent price/AI optimism (see From trough to 3m ADTV (USDm) 229 RIC STMPA.PA

throttle, 29 June 2026), but we see this as a call on the shape of the recovery and not

FINANCIALS AND RATIOS (USD)

its existence. Management’s commentary on (A) book-to-bill “close to 2” overall, Year to 12/2025a 12/2026e 12/2027e 12/2028e

(B) distribution inventory below company’s target levels, (C) ongoing price increases, HSBC EPS 0.53 1.43 2.82 4.05

HSBC EPS (prev) 0.53 1.44 3.06 4.23

and (D) net capex now expected at the high end of its USD2-2.2bn range, Change (%) 0.0 -1.2 -7.9 -4.3

corroborates our view of a strong underlying demand upturn. Combined with Consensus EPS 0.60 1.34 2.66 3.74

PE (x) 101.0 37.3 18.9 13.1

progress on the manufacturing reshaping plan, we still see scope for a strong margin Dividend yield (%) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7