RWE Upgrades earnings for FY26 & FY27, with upside risks to guidance – remain OW

研报英文原文证据摘录

RWE Upgrades earnings for FY26 & FY27, with upside risks to guidance – remain OW

Pavan Mahbubani, CFA AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7134-3056 29 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

pavan.mahbubani@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

RWE (Overweight; Price Target: €65.0)

Investment Thesis

RWE operates a leading renewables & flexible generation platform, the utility has strong

growth ambitions in renewables. Higher power prices than pre-energy crisis should support

the profitability of its generation portfolio, including in renewables which have a material

merchant exposure. Power demand growth should also underpin the need for incremental

investments in generation capacity in RWE’s key geographies which should support value

accretive growth.

Valuation

We value RWE on a DCF-based SOTP at a fuel type and geographical level. We assume 20%

of value creation on the pipeline up to 2030.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

The main downside risks to our price target and rating are:

• A material decrease in European power prices, which would reduce our profitability

outlook

• Unexpected political interventions to further reduce windfall profits

• Lower-than-expected profitability due to lower trading, renewable resources or fleet

availability

• Delays or cost overruns on renewables project developments

• A large share of the renewables growth being done through acquisitions at excessive

prices

• Difficulties for the company to phase out fixed costs in line with the capacity of its non-

core fossil and nuclear fleet, which would put pressure on profitability

• A faster-than-expected increase of competitive pressure on renewables development,

which would challenge the company’s ability to create value through its green growth

strategy.