Medibank Private Limited: FY26 preview: Price increases to offset inflation in 2H26; industry volume growth strong, but MPL likely losing share; growth story now tied to Health segment

研报英文原文证据摘录

Medibank Private Limited: FY26 preview: Price increases to offset inflation in 2H26; industry volume growth strong, but MPL likely losing share; growth story now tied to Health segment

ran slightly below the bottom of the range, flattered by a

~50bps risk equalisation benefit and an inflated COVID-affected 1H25 base worth

~100bps. JPM Comment: On a cash basis, stripping out the claims payment speed-

up, our prior placed FY26 inflation nearer 3.7% to 4.0%, so the management-basis

range understates the underlying run-rate.

• Resident premium increase: An average resident premium increase of 5.1%

applies from 1 April 2026, up from the 3.99% increase applied in 2025.

• Revenue mix (downgrading): MPL expects FY26 revenue mix impacts to be better

than the 1H26 level of 150bps, subject to no material change in the economic

environment. We do note that MPL had flagged some investment in Live Better that

contributed to the high number, which is now fully embedded in the revenue run rate

so shouldn’t continue being a drag. JPM Comment: The most recent management

commentary flags rising use of retention offers and continued skew to lower-tier

products, which we think risks pushing reported mix the other way. This is the

guidance item most exposed to a miss.

• Resident gross margin: MPL frames a flat-jaws outcome for FY26 as "very

plausible", with revenue and claims growth per PSEU aligned, provided revenue

mix impacts do not exceed the 1H26 level of ~150bps. The 1H26 resident gross

margin held flat at 15.5% and group health insurance gross margin at 16.2%.

• Health insurance expenses and MER: MPL guides FY26 expenses of A$690m to

A$695m, including A$10m of targeted productivity savings, and continues to target

a stable to modestly improving expense ratio relative to FY25.