Northern Star Resources Ltd.: JunQ26 First Take: Strong quarter vs JPMe; KCGM on track and Hemi FID target late FY27

研报英文原文证据摘录

Northern Star Resources Ltd.: JunQ26 First Take: Strong quarter vs JPMe; KCGM on track and Hemi FID target late FY27

Jonathon Sharp AC Asia Pacific Equity Research

(61 2) 9003-8312 29 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

jonathon.sharp@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Northern Star Resources Ltd. (Neutral; Price Target: A$21.00)

Investment Thesis

Northern Star Resources is focused on three production hubs – Kalgoorlie and Yandal in

Australia, and Pogo in Alaska, and it has recently acquired a fourth hub in the Hemi

development project. The company has had a string of operational issues but has strong

production growth. We are Neutral rated as the stock trades in line with our valuation.

Valuation

Our Jun-27 price target is based on our DCF valuation, rounded to the next dollar. We use

a WACC of 7.6%.

DCF valuation A$m A$ps

Jundee 1,175 0.84

Thunderbox 1,845 1.31

Yandal Hub 3,021 2.15

Super Pit 13,207 9.40

Kalgoorlie 1,498 1.07

Carosue Dam 2,220 1.58

Kalgoorlie Hub 16,925 12.05

Hemi 5,586 3.98

Pogo 4,420 3.15

Total operations 29,951 21.32

Exploration 1,500 1.07

Corporate, intersegment & other costs -918 -0.65

Net cash (debt) -2,426 -1.73

Total 28,107 20.00

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Key downside risks include KCGM ramp-up delays and Hemi capex escalation. Other

upside and downside risks include: 1) movements in commodities, currencies, production

and capex relative to our forecasts; 2) changes to tax, legislation and other operating

conditions; 3) exploration outcomes; 4) R&R update to indicate reserve grades at Jundee,

Thunderbox, and Pogo; 5) Jundee review outcomes; 6) KCGM ramp up progress; 7)

consecutive quarters of operational delivery; and, 8) clear medium-term outlook for

production and costs at each of the asset hubs.