Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Oshkosh Corp (OSK.N)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS CATALYST CALENDAR

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e Date Event Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley

Access Equipment Revenue Growth 27 Oct 2026 - (13.0) 3.8 3.0 3.0 Q3 2026 Oshkosh Corp Earnings Release (%) 02 Nov 2026

Defense Revenue Growth (%) (3.8) 19.8 2.0 2.0

Vocational Revenue Growth (%) 12.6 2.1 10.0 5.0

Consolidated Adj. Operating Income

9.6 8.7 10.7 11.3

Margin (%)

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Global Construction activity RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

State/Fed Government Vehicle Orders US Non-Resi and Resi construction spending

Rental Company Replacement Demand more material than expected Sales / 11,137

Rental company re-fleeting exceeds Revenue 10,638 11,286

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE expectations ($, mm) 10,969

NGDV ramps faster than anticipated

0-10% Europe ex UK Fire capacity ramp exceed expectations

0-10% Latin America 1,204

0-10% Mainland China RISKS TO DOWNSIDE EBITDA 1,175 1,411

($, mm)

0-10% UK US Non-Resi contracts sooner/more than 1,262

80-90% North America anticipated

NGDV disappoints and Defense contract losses

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate 662

are more impactful Net incomeView explanation of regional hierarchies here 550 734

Vocational demand and AeroTech integration ($, mm)

miss expectations 681

MS ALPHA MODELS

10.53 OWNERSHIP POSITIONING EPS 4/5 24 Month 4/5 3 Month 8.78 11.68

BEST Horizon MOST Horizon Inst. Owners, % Active 50.9% ($) 10.90

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.4x

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored HF Sector Net Exposure 8.8% Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

Quintile Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research