Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – OMA (OMAB.O)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

Aero Revenues per Pax y-y growth

2.8 5.4 9.8 4.2

(%)

Non Aero Revenues per Pax y-y

3.7 9.9 8.4 5.9

growth (%)

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Air traffic growth. RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2027e

Non-regulated revenues. Passenger traffic above our base case.

Traffic mix – domestic vs. international. Stronger than expected Nearshoring trends. Sales / 20,194

Interest rate environment. Non-regulated revenues above our base case. Revenue 17,563 20,851

(M$, mm) 19,193 RISKS TO DOWNSIDE

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE Passenger traffic below our base case

Political/regulatory risk (e.g. new increases in 13,245

EBITDA

concession fee) 11,686 13,835 10-20% North America (M$, mm)

Slower traffic recovery from P&W groundings. 13,082 80-90% Latin America

Non-regulated revenues below our base case.

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate OWNERSHIP POSITIONING Net income 7,577

View explanation of regional hierarchies here (M$, mm) Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying

Inst. Owners, % Active 58.5% consensus data for this metric

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.4x

HF Sector Net Exposure 8.8%

156.97

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund EPS Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be (M$)

consensus data for this metric

inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short

exposure. Sector % of Total Net Exposure = (For a

Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

particular sector: Long Exposure - Short Exposure) /

(Across all sectors: Long Exposure – Short Exposure). Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Morgan Stanley Research 3