PayPal: 2Q26 Recap: Balanced Commentary and Stable-to-Improving Trends Support Shares

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PayPal: 2Q26 Recap: Balanced Commentary and Stable-to-Improving Trends Support Shares

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

28 July 2026

PayPal Neutral

PYPL, PYPL US

2Q26 Recap: Balanced Commentary and Stable-to- Price (27 Jul 26):$56.07

Improving Trends Support Shares ▲Price Target (Dec-27):$65.00 Prior (Dec-26):$46.00

PayPal shares reacted favorably (+4% vs. S&P 500 +20bps), modestly

outperforming peers, after what we view as a relatively better-than-expected Payments, Processors & IT Services

quarter/guide, and perhaps more important for shares, generally balanced Tien-tsin Huang, CFA AC

comments from management related to recent deal newsflow. On the latter, (1-212) 622-6632

management unsurprisingly didn’t comment on specific deal-related headlines, tien-tsin.huang@jpmorgan.com

but instead said they continue to focus on executing their transformation strategy Connor Allen

while remaining open and objective when evaluating opportunities to maximize (1-212) 270-2895

connor.allen@jpmorgan.com

long-term shareholder value. Considering the price action in the shares since the

Charles Pearce, CFA

takeover news, we wouldn’t be surprised if shares continue to trade primarily

(1-212) 622-4368

around deal headlines and sentiment. That said, from a fundamental standpoint, the charles.pearce@jpmchase.com

quarter showed stable to improving trends across core TPV metrics, including J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Branded stable +2%, BNPL accelerating to +26% and Venmo TPV stable +14%.

TMD was nicely ahead, and momentum carried into the 3Q TMD guide which was

above expectations, though the lift was partially offset by a similarly higher opex Key Changes (FYE Dec)

trendline as PYPL invests in modernization and growth ahead of cost reduction Prev Cur Δ

Adj.