Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Virtus Investment Partners Inc (VRTS.N)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

LT Net Flows (%) (10.8) (11.7) (2.7) (1.6)

Market Performance (%) 3.3 5.0 4.7 4.6

EoP AUM ($, bn) 159 151 154 158

Mgmt Fees Margin (%) 0.412 0.435 0.433 0.421

Operating Margin (%) 31.1 28.3 29.3 29.6

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Deteriorating flow trends and challenging RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2027e

performance are likely to keep the stock from Fund performance improves

re-rating Flows improve EPS

Outflows from higher fee, higher margin funds Positive fee rate mix shift ($) 24.77 25.90

raises risks to more pronounced revenue and Strategic activity in consolidating industry 25.50

earnings hit

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE

Outflows in key funds accelerate driven by 161GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE Net income

poor performance, client de-risking and ($, mm) Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying

industry flow shift to passive consensus data for this metric

Fee rate compression worse than expected

100% North America with negative mix shift

Opt. margin contraction 229

Uncertain macro backdrop weighs on client risk EBITDA

appetite/demand & strategic activity ($, mm) Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate consensus data for this metric

View explanation of regional hierarchies here

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

Inst. Owners, % Active 36.8% Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.4x

HF Sector Net Exposure 7.5%

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

trends.