Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– Brown- &BrownBrown Inc.&(BRO.N)Brown Inc. (BRO.N)

Maintain Execution on Strong Margins and Growth

PRICE TARGET $56.00 UNDERWEIGHT THESIS

Valuation is based on a EV/EBITDA analysis where we apply a 9.3x multiple to our FY27E Adj. A difficult growth environment. Our

EBITDA estimate (derived from comparable peer multiples). Our PT implies a discount to a underweight rating for Brown & Brown

peer multiple average of 11.7x FY27E EV/EBITDA. revolves around the investment thesis

shifting from “quality compounder with

$70.78 M&A upside” to “quality compounder facing

Consensus Price Target Distribution $32.89 $90.00 a lower-growth, more competitive, more

MS PT talent-intensive cycle.” The company is not

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates broken, but the combination of flat organic

revenue, softer property pricing, outsized

Florida exposure, middle-market competitive

RISK REWARD CHART encroachment, and producer disruption

makes the stock less attractive relative to

insurance brokerage peers. Until BRO proves

USD that organic growth can reaccelerate

sustainably, we believe the risk/reward

skews negative.

$80.00$80.00(+14.78%)$80.00(+14.78%)(+14.78%)

Consensus Rating Distribution

$69.70$69.70$69.70 23% Overweight

$56.00$56.00(-19.66%)$56.00(-19.66%)(-19.66%) 73% Equal-weight

50 5% Underweight

MS Rating

25 Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

$30.00$30.00(-56.96%)$30.00(-56.96%)(-56.96%)

0 Risk Reward Themes

JUL '25 JAN '26 JUL '26 JUL '27 Secular Growth: Negative

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

BULL CASE $80.00 BASE CASE $56.00 BEAR CASE $30.00