Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

gan Stanley Research, Morgan Stanley Institutional Equities Division. The probabilities of our Bull,

Base, and Bear case scenarios playing out were estimated with implied volatility data from the options market as of 28

Jul 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either

three-months’ or one-years’ time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here

BULL CASE SFr 224.00 BASE CASE SFr 181.00 BEAR CASE SFr 103.00

Growth recovers to upper end of target 5% growth, margin in target range mid term Sika underperforms peers and loses share

range. EV/EBITDA: 16x FY26e EBITDA, 1 standard We assume 2% revenue growth in 2026 –

We assume revenue growth of 6% annually, deviation below the 10-year EV/EBITDA. We this would represent a scenario where China

vs. 3-6% outgrowth vs. market targeted by see the de-rating as justified by a reset trends do not stabilise but continue to

management mid-term. Puts terminal year lower in growth. deteriorate and growth outside this region is

revenues 13% ahead of base case. EBITDA not offset by a pick-up in European /

margin ~100bps ahead of base case on DCF: 5% local currency revenue growth in Americas markets. Thereafter, 2-3% growth

operating leverage. Approaches top end of 2026, within mid term target of 3-6%, ~5% to 2030 assumed, at the low end of

target range mid-term. WACC, terminal local currency growth in mid term. EBITDA management's targeted range. Margins only

growth and capital intensity (capex/sales) margins range between 19% and 22% over manage to recover to 20% in this scenario

are unchanged vs. the base case. At our bull 2026-28 (target 20-23%) as cost-cutting towards the end of the decade. WACC is