Generali: 1H26 Preview: lowering our estimates, but continuing to expect strong profit growth ahead of consensus

研报英文原文证据摘录

Generali: 1H26 Preview: lowering our estimates, but continuing to expect strong profit growth ahead of consensus

Farooq Hanif AC Europe Equity Research

(44 207) 742-8091 28 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

farooq.hanif@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Generali (Overweight; Price Target: €44.00)

Investment Thesis

Life business generating attractive and stable growth, and potentially undervalued by

the market. Life insurance represents ~50% of Generali’s IFRS17 operating profit, and we

expect this to benefit from strong new business margins in its main markets and new

business profit growth, driving ~6% CAGR in life insurance operating profit. Under

IFRS17, with most of the profit coming from the CSM release, we expect profits to be

relatively smooth and not subject to a large degree of investment market-related volatility.

We see this as a positive aspect of Generali’s investment case. We see scope for new business

margin improvements in the next few years as Generali further improves the mix of business

towards protection and unit-linked products.

Positive surprise in P&C margin outlook. As a predominantly retail-focused insurer,

Generali does not face the headwinds relating to pressure on global commercial P&C

pricing at some of its major composite peers (e.g. Allianz, AXA). In contrast, pricing and

claims trends in its key retail motor and non-motor markets in continental Europe appear

to be leading to a strong expansion in underwriting margins. Ongoing efficiency measures

should also lead to material improvements in the P&C expense ratio. We expect Generali

to deliver an undiscounted combined ratio of <94.0% by 2027E, exceeding its guidance of

<94.5%. Our discounted combined ratio is also better than Bloomberg consensus over

2026E-28E.