Ambev (ABEV3.SA): Brazil Beer IPCA-15 July-26: Pricing Discipline Remains

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Ambev (ABEV3.SA): Brazil Beer IPCA-15 July-26: Pricing Discipline Remains

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28 Jul 2026 09:04:37 ET │ 11 pages

Ambev (ABEV3.SA)

Brazil Beer IPCA-15 July-26: Pricing Discipline Remains

CITI'S TAKE

Neutral July IPCA-15 reinforced the message already signaled by recent inflation

releases (link): beer pricing in Brazil remains broadly aligned with inflation. Price (27 Jul 26 18:00) R$15.86

Beer inflation stood at +4.3%YoY in July, versus headline IPCA-15 at Target price R$16.50

+4.5%YoY, bringing the pricing gap to -18bps (vs. -69bps in June and - Expected share price return 4.0%

66bps in May). On a monthly basis, beer prices increased +0.2%MoM, Expected dividend yield 5.9%

slightly above headline inflation, implying a +13bps gap. Additionally, the Expected total return 10.0%

at-home channel (+4.9%YoY) continued to support beer pricing, while

Market Cap R$250,012M out-of-home beer inflation remained softer at +3.5%YoY. Overall, with

US$48,861M the global football tournament now behind us, pricing behavior during the

period confirmed the industry’s preference for supporting volumes rather

than pursuing incremental price extraction. We view this affordable-first

strategy positively and expect beer pricing to remain broadly in line with Renata CabralAC

inflation going forward. +55-11-4009-7561

renata.cabral@citi.com

Out-of-Home Still More Affordable. Beer inflation in bars and restaurants Luis Felipe Terzariol

accelerated in July to +3.5% YoY, but remained ~100bps below headline inflation. +55-11-4009-3564

Meanwhile, at-home beer inflation eased to +4.9% YoY, still ~40bps above IPCA-15. luis.terzariol@citi.com

Overall beer inflation reached +4.3% YoY, down 20bps MoM and 20bps below

headline inflation.

Middle East Volatility Lingers.