First Takes [KO, HLT, RCL], Previews [W, VSXY, FRPT, BRBR]

研报英文原文证据摘录

First Takes [KO, HLT, RCL], Previews [W, VSXY, FRPT, BRBR]

tariff tailwinds (with incremental upside

in our view to our full-price selling mix assumption).

Model Implications: We raise our FY26 EPS to $4.65 (above Street $4.62 / mgmt’s guidance $4.35-4.60) and our FY27 EPS to

$5.98 (+10% above Street $5.46).

Remain Overweight establishing a $110 Dec '27 price target based on 15x our FY28 EPS supported by our peer regression

analysis, with our upside model pointing to a $130+ equity value opportunity.

FRPT Q2 Preview

Based on the continued strength of consumption trends (+11.7% Y/Y in 2Q, per Circana), we think a sales beat is likely and

model +11.4% Y/Y, above the Bloomberg consensus of +10.4%. We think this sales upside could translate to a slight EBITDA

beat (FRPT is riding a 14 quarter streak of quarterly EBITDA beats). We do not necessarily expect an outright guidance increase,

but sales and EBITDA seem to be tracking toward the upper end of FRPT’s annual range. We also think that the company could

reiterate its 2027 EBITDA target of 20%, in part by boosting its gross margin outlook (currently 48%) to reflect benefits of the

new line technologies that it introduced earlier this year. We appreciate that (a) it is tough to disprove the threat of competition

and (b) the 2Q sales upside is probably well-understood, but we still see a constructive set up into 2Q earnings, given the

potentially positive forward commentary.

Updating estimates and price target. To reflect sales upside in 2Q and the possibility of slight upside in 2H26, 2026 EBITDA goes

to $213MM from $209MM, while 2027 remains $260MM. We establish a December 2027 price target of $72, based on 12x EV/

EBITDA (1.5x our estimated 2027 sales growth). Our prior December 2026 price target was $68.