Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Trip.com Group Ltd (TCOM.O)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

Hotel GMV (Rmb, mn) 314,458 343,388 386,311 428,806

Transportation GMV (Rmb, mn) 1,138,886 1,272,022 1,414,558 1,566,556

Package tour GMV (Rmb, mn) 78,133 87,509 95,385 102,062

Advertising spending as % of

15.9 17.8 19.0 19.7

revenue (%)

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Developments in China's tourism market thanks RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

to increasing disposable income and developing Rebound in macroeconomic growth and RMB

infrastructure Recovery in outbound travel growth Sales / 67,062.2

Underpenetrated online travel market, indicating Revenue 67,030.0 69,606.3

growth potential for core business RISKS TO DOWNSIDE (Rmb, mn) 67,886.4

Margin improvements from favorable revenue Rising competition in the domestic market

mix from Tongcheng Travel and Meituan

update? Macro slowdown and extreme weather

EBIT

conditions lead to low travel incentives. 11,343 20,054.0

(Rmb, mn)

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE 18,343.2

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

0-10% Europe ex UK

15,705

0-10% Japan Inst. Owners, % Active 86.5% Net income

13,916.0 19,180.0 0-10% Latin America (Rmb, mn) HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.7x 16,969.2 0-10% North America

0-10% UK HF Sector Net Exposure 11.1%

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland 22.9 10-20% China and India Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund EPS

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be 19.4 28.4 70-80% Mainland China (Rmb)

inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market 24.8

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short

View explanation of regional hierarchies here exposure. Sector % of Total Net Exposure = (For a Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates