J.P.Morgan Global Equity Research International First To Market

研报英文原文证据摘录

J.P.Morgan Global Equity Research International First To Market

North America Equity Research AC Global Equity Research

(1-212) 270-6000 28 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

morganwise@jpmorgan.com

Pricing cycle starting to pick up pace, increasing earnings expectations for corrugators; Upgrade

International Paper on better risk/reward set-up

Last Friday, Green Markets reported that PKG had announced a price increase of $140/t for US kraftliner, to be implemented

on 1 September 2026 (read first take here). While we think that a full implementation is unlikely, we take this opportunity to

address a couple of key debates. In this note, we discuss: (1) the current and implied price/cost potential of the US linerboard

market, (2) where we think prices should settle after considering the incentive price needed to add new capacity, (3) what this

price increase means for valuations, and (4) how this impacts peer companies differently. We conclude that this latest round of

price increases is not cost driven but rather driven by favorable supply/demand dynamics and prices still being below levels

needed to incentivise new capacity. Furthermore, we see PKG and IP as the most levered to this pricing upside and, when it

comes to valuation, IP is the most leveraged of all. Accordingly, with upside risk to our own pricing estimates and expectations

that price /cost continues to evolve positively, we upgrade International Paper to Overweight (from Neutral) as the valuation

starts to screen more attractively. As discussed below, we continue to maintain our preference for both Smurfit WestRock and

Packaging Corp. of America.

| ASUSTek Computer (Albert Hung) (2357 TT, N, PT NT$750.00), Taiwan

Servers strengthen, but PC headwinds cap upside; upgrade to Neutral