1H26F preview and FY26F forecast revisions

研报英文原文证据摘录

1H26F preview and FY26F forecast revisions

Global Markets Research

Kelun Biotech 6990.HK 6990 HK 24 July 2026

EQUITY: HEALTH CARE & PHARMACEUTICALS

Rating1H26F preview and FY26F forecast revisions Remains Buy

Target priceWe expect sales ramp-up and big non-recurring income Increased from HKD 612.66in 1H26F and anticipate more clinical catalysts in 2H26F HKD 544.42

We forecast 1H26F revenue reached CNY1.41bn, up +48.4%, along with a positive Closing23 July 2026price HKD 521.50

earnings book of CNY731mn in 1H26F, led by lawsuit settlement payment

We estimate Kelun Biotech will report 1H26F revenue of CNY1.41bn (+48% y-y), on the Implied upside +17.5%back of CNY650mn drug sales (mainly from sac-TMT) and CNY750mn collaboration

revenue. We think sac-TMT sales is on track to reach management’s target of doubling Market Cap (USD mn) 15,897.7

FY25 sales, considering the accelerated sales ramp-up after NRDL inclusion. ADT (USD mn) 63.4

On the margins front, we estimate 1H26F gross margin rose 9.1pp y-y to 78.5%. We

forecast opex of CNY994mn in 1H26F (15% y-y), considering the sales team expansion. Relative performance chart

We anticipate other income reached CNY750mn in 1H26, owing to payment it received

from the legal settlement with MediLink Therapeutics (unlisted).

As a result, net profit should turn positive at CNY731mn (vs a loss of CNY145mn in 1H25.

For 2H26F, we forecast revenue to grow 30% y-y to CNY1.44bn, led by continued sac-

TMT sales growth. Together with a gross margin of 81.1% and opex of CNY1.0bn (-8.5%

y-y), 2H26F net profit will likely come in at CNY206mn (vs a loss of CNY237mn in 2H25).

Maintain Buy and lift TP from HKD544.42 to HKD612.66

We lower FY26F revenue by14% but lift earnings estimates by 226%(considering the