Execution continues to offset seasonal headwinds: Asset sweating and disciplined capital allocation support strong earning growth; maintain Buy, trim TP to INR1,300

研报英文原文证据摘录

Execution continues to offset seasonal headwinds: Asset sweating and disciplined capital allocation support strong earning growth; maintain Buy, trim TP to INR1,300

Global Markets Research

Jindal Steel JINT.INx JINDALST IN 27 July 2026

EQUITY: METALS & MINING

RatingExecution continues to offset sesonal headwinds Remains Buy

Target priceAsset sweating and disciplined capital allocation support Reduced from INR INR 1,300strong earning growth; maintain Buy, trim TP to INR1,300 1,350

1QFY27 results: Strong execution drives another earnings beat Closing24 July 2026price INR 1,036

Jindal Steel reported consolidated EBITDA of INR26.6bn, beating our forecast and the

Bloomberg consensus estimate by 13% and 7%, respectively. The earnings beat was Implied upside +25.5%

driven by stronger-than-expected volume growth and resilient realizations despite

weakness in rebar prices. Consolidated volumes increased 17% y-y to 2.23MT, exceeding Market Cap (USD mn) 10,921.2

our estimate by 4%, while realizations rose 12% q-q (vs our expectation of 5%). ADT (USD mn) 17.2

Conversion costs increased 16% q-q, primarily due to planned maintenance, but the

stronger operating performance more than offset the cost pressure. Consequently, Relative performance chart

EBITDA/t improved to INR11,950, up 18% q-q and 9% ahead of our estimate

2QFY27 preview: Softer pricing likely to weigh on margins

We expect consolidated volumes to remain strong at ~2.2MT (+15% y-y), supported by

the ongoing ramp-up of the Angul blast furnace. However, seasonally weaker domestic

demand is likely to keep rebar prices under pressure, resulting in a projected INR3,400/t

q-q decline in blended realizations. In addition, higher coking coal costs (~USD15/t q-q)

should weigh on profitability.