How big could the data center fiber interconnection opportunity be?

研报英文原文证据摘录

How big could the data center fiber interconnection opportunity be?

expect Dycom would likely pick up a Q4E 2.87 2.82

sizable share of work for data center interconnections (DCI), given both its existing share 01/27E 17.00 16.59

and scale/capabilities to execute on the largest projects. Assuming a 15-20% share for 01/28E 20.85 19.97

Dycom, DCI work could represent $900-$1,200m of revenue for Dycom per year in 01/29E 22.60 24.04

2028-29. Dycom hasn't disclosed its revenue from this end market, but we believe it Steven Fisher, CFA

likely represents a low-mid single digit percent of Communications revenue in 2026 Analyst

(~FY27). We believe most of the work in 2026 is overpulling (adding fiber to existing steven.fisher@ubs.com

conduits), which is less expensive - though still meaningful - and permitting/engineering +1-212-713 8634

and other preconstruction work. We expect the construction of new routes to ramp up Avinatan Jaroslawicz

considerably in 2028-29. Analyst

avinatan.jaroslawicz@ubs.com

How we arrived at our DCI opportunity estimates +1-212-713 1405

The FBA forecasts installed fiber networks serving data centers will grow from Joshua Spector, CFA

160m fiber-miles in 2024 to 373m fiber-miles in 2029. The FBA expects these Analyst

~213m additional fiber-miles will be relatively evenly split between upgrades to joshua.spector@ubs.com

existing routes (i.e. overpulling) and new routes. We assume overpull work is front- +1-212-713 6188

loaded, while new route development is backend-loaded.

Highlights (US$m) 01/24 01/25 01/26 01/27E 01/28E 01/29E 01/30E 01/31E

Revenues 4,176 4,702 5,546 7,639 8,525 8,951 9,239 9,535

EBIT (UBS) 345 393 493 834 973 1,029 1,049 1,069

Net earnings (UBS) 219 249 325 516 633 685 701 716