Nordpool provides a tailwind, but DC opportunities yet to materialise

研报英文原文证据摘录

Nordpool provides a tailwind, but DC opportunities yet to materialise

Global Research

27 July 2026ab

Fortum Equities

FinlandNordpool provides a tailwind, but

DC opportunities yet to materialise Electric Utilities

12-month rating Sell

12m price target €14.60Bottom line: Remain Sell rated, despite some power price upside

Prior : €13.20

While higher Nordic power prices support earnings and drive our estimate upgrades, we

believe the market continues to price in a material data centre (DC) opportunity. Fortum Price (23 Jul 2026) €20.71

shares' performance has been driven predominantly by multiple expansion (consensus RIC: FORTUM.HE BBG: FORTUM FH

has upgraded 2Y forward EPS only YTD). While Fortum built a platform to capture future

DC demand, evidence of material earnings contribution remains limited, with no Trading data and key metrics

significant PPA announced to date. At the same time, recent regulatory developments in 52-wk range €22.63-14.54

Finland, incl. higher electricity taxes and a proposal linking DC expansion to new Market cap. €18.6b/US$21.1b

generation build-out, could potentially affect future project economics and timing. Shares o/s 897m (ORD)

Free float 45%

Rising Nordic prices support earnings upgrade Avg. daily volume ('000) 1,038

Nordpool forwards have increased, mostly on higher natural gas prices. We raise our Avg. daily value (m) €21.1

2027-29 EBITDA estimates by 12-14% on a higher achieved power price reflecting the Common s/h equity (12/26E) €8.78b

current forward curve. Every €1/MWh increase in achieved power price has a c€47m P/BV (12/26E) 2.1x

impact on EBIT, on UBSe. Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 1.0x

Data centres: attractive narrative, limited monetisation so far EPS (UBS, diluted) (EUR)

From To % ch Cons.