Irish Banks: Results unlikely to bring any surprises; Bol down to Neutral

研报英文原文证据摘录

Irish Banks: Results unlikely to bring any surprises; Bol down to Neutral

Irish Banks UBS Research

Stocks up, forecasts broadly stable into results

AIB and BoI stock prices are up ~15% in the past 3 months, having re-rated ~10% in this

period, slightly less than the sector re-rating. In the last 12 months, the stocks are up 55-

65%, for a 30-40% re-rating.

Figure 2: Irish banks stocks up ~15% in the last 3 months, re-rating by

multiples stable in 2026 YTD, broadly in line with sector performance

Iris h ba nks st ocks up ~15 % i n th e la st 3 m

onths, re- rat ing by mu lti ple s s tab le in 202

6 Y TD, br oad ly in lin e wi th s ec to

r perfor man ce

Source: LSEG Workspace, UBS

On 2-year forward consensus EPS (i.e. 2027 currently), that leaves AIB trading close to its

10-year average and BoI 1-standard deviation above its 10-year average.

Figure 3: AIB is trading slightly above the 10-year average Figure 4: BoI is trading above one std deviation above

on a 2FY forward (FY27) PE basis the10-year average 2FY forward PE

ghtl std

sli one

bove

ding ng a

tra adi

tr

is

AIB BoI

abov the

y a forwa (FYrd PE27) basis devia ation tbove he10-y avear erage fo2FY rward PE e 10-yea averr onage 2FY

Source: LSEG Workspace, UBS Source: LSEG Workspace, UBS

Valuations have gone up as ROTE expectations have improved but at ~10% implied

COE, the stocks appear fairly valued.

Figure 5: AIB P/TNAV vs ROTE Figure 6: BoI P/TNAV vs ROTE

ROTE

vs

TNAV

B P/ vs

AI I P/

Bo

Implications of non-domestic firms' entry into Ireland

dominates conversations

Given the concentration of market shares and spreads on offer, potential for disruption

from entry of new participants in the Irish banking market has been a concern over the

years, though it hasn’t played out in any meaningful way.