Georg Fischer Initial investor pushbacks & our thoughts

研报英文原文证据摘录

Georg Fischer Initial investor pushbacks & our thoughts

Cons.

pointing to a potential acceleration of some end markets on the horizon. Growth in 12/26E 2.64 1.31

manufacturing output seen in July was strongest pace since March 2022 (link). 12/27E 2.95 3.02

12/28E 3.18 3.42

Some thoughts on the pushbacks and industry news

Joern Iffert, CFAWe think all pushbacks we received are very fair. However we have the following in

Analyst

consideration: (1) GF's construction volumes in H1 26 were flattish y/y with some growth joern.iffert@ubs.com

support from Canada (offsetting the US somewhat). In Europe, Heating & Cooling +41-44-239 88 00

solution (c20% of the construction sales) grew mid single digit y/y. Heat Pump solutions

Sebastian Vogel, CFAaccounting for c10% of construction sales grew 10-15% y/y. But despite some unique

drivers at GF, we agree, rising yield curve risks amid inflation trends (oil price) could put sebastian.vogel@ubs.com

growth risks on 2027E. (2) In our sequential EBIT margin bridge for H2 26E, we think +41-44 239 90 45

semi alone can contribute cCHF20m total EBIT of the cCHF30m needed (in comparison

Marti Queral Ferre, CFA

to H1 26) to meet the full year guidance. On cost savings, we expect some net CHF5-

10m incremental contribution "only" for H2 26E on reinvestments risks. (3) Pricing marti.queral-ferre@ubs.com

power seems limited to protect margins but it protected earnings to some extent as we +41-44-236 9246

have seen with H1 26 results. However overcapacities in some end markets remain a

risk. (4) GF reiterates its 2026E EFCF guidance of CHF175-200m and has a programme

running for improved NWC efficiencies. We will closely monitor progress as cash

conversion is a crucial part of shareholder value creation incrementally.