First Read Saipem 2Q26: Not immune to the conflict implications, miss on EBITDA and FY26 EBITDA guidance cut

研报英文原文证据摘录

First Read Saipem 2Q26: Not immune to the conflict implications, miss on EBITDA and FY26 EBITDA guidance cut

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation 12.4%

Forecast dividend yield 3.9%

Forecast stock return 16.3%

Market return assumption 8.1%

Forecast excess return 8.3%

Company Description

Saipem is a leading oil services and construction company, with its main focus on complex,

deepwater, frontier projects. Saipem has a global presence and operates three business units:

Asset Based Services, Energy Carriers and Offshore Drilling. Eni and CDP own 21.2% and

12.8% stakes in the group, respectively, while the free float is 65%. In early 2025, Saipem

and Subsea7 agreed on a merger to create a global leading player in offshore energy services,

Saipem7. The deal is expected to be completed by YE26, subject to regulatory approval.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

Investment in oil service companies is inherently risky. The sector is exposed to high levels of

volatility due to commodity, exploration, production, geological, political and even weather

related risks. Furthermore, the sector has been highly cyclical both in terms of operating profit

and share price performance in the past, due to the underlying risks and the impact that

swings in sentiment can have on such companies' valuations. The lump-sum projects are

high-risk enterprises, with significant execution risk and scope for final margins to differ

materially from original estimations. In addition, its drilling activities are subject to a variety of

specific risks, including total write-off following damage in service, which may not be fully

covered by insurance. We use DCF and multiple approach to value Saipem. For DCF we use

8% WACC and 0% g. We use target 12M P/E multiple of 13x.