UBS Tech Views: Intel supply chain implications - upside from CPU and packaging

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UBS Tech Views: Intel supply chain implications - upside from CPU and packaging

prior street US$15.1bn and in-line with raised +886-2-8722 7281

UBS estimates, supported by improving server CPU demand and sustained AI

infrastructure spending. While wafer output and 18A yields are trending ahead of

plan, supply remains constrained across wafers, memory and substrates, with

supply growth expected to be skewed toward late-Q3 and Q4, particularly for

servers. While PC demand is expected to remain sub-seasonal in 2H26 and down

low-double digits for full-year 2026 due to memory cost and availability

constraints, improving supply, a stronger product portfolio, and edge-AI

deployments should provide partial offsets. GMs was guided to 42%, above street

41%, supported by improving yields and operational execution.

3. Server CPU outlook improved further on AI-driven demand. Management

highlighted improving outlook for server CPU demand, forecasting strong double-

digit industry unit growth this year and next, with momentum extending into

2028, supported by agentic AI and inference workloads. The commentary aligns

with AMD's recent TAM expansion, which projects the server CPU market to

exceed US$200bn by 2030, with AMD management noting CPU demand could

move closer to parity with GPUs over time as AI infrastructure scales (link).

4. Foundry and advanced packaging momentum continues to build. Intel

Foundry revenue increased 6% QoQ to US$5.8bn, driven by higher fab volumes as

18A output exceeded targets by ~25% and grew more than 50% QoQ.

Management highlighted that 18A yields continue to run ahead of expectations,

with 18A-P entering risk production during the quarter. Manufacturing efficiencies

also continue to improve, with Panther Lake costs reduced by ~50% YTD and