Model Update Post H1 Results

研报英文原文证据摘录

Model Update Post H1 Results

.99%) ProbProbProb (<185.00)~21.7%(<185.00)~21.7%(<185.00)~21.7% Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Risk Reward Themes

JUL '25 JAN '26 JUL '26 JUL '27 Pricing Power: Positive

Secular Growth: Positive

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research, Morgan Stanley Institutional Equities Division. The probabilities of our Bull,

Base, and Bear case scenarios playing out were estimated with implied volatility data from the options market as of 27

Jul 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either

three-months’ or one-years’ time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here

BULL CASE €369.00 BASE CASE €264.00 BEAR CASE €185.00

Higher growth, higher margin, buyback Defence growth continues; Aero and C&D Defence spending curtailed; Aerospace

recovers growth lower

- Group revenue CAGR (3-year 2025-28) of

10% driven by accelerated defence spending, - Group revenue CAGR (3-year 2025-28) of - Group revenue CAGR (3-year 2025-28) of

and a faster recovery in Aerospace and 8% driven by consistent operational 6% driven by a slower rise in defence

Cyber & Digital segments. execution, underpinned by the core Defence budgets, particularly in France, due to fiscal

segment and further recovery in Aerospace. pressures and an easing of global tensions.

- Group EBIT margin expansion of 290bp to Aerospace and Cyber & Digital sees slower

15.3% in 2028 from operating leverage and - Group EBIT margin expansion of 100bp to growth due to persistent supply chain

strong execution. 13.4% in 2028, driving a 2025-28 EPS CAGR disruption and weaker consumer demand.

of 13%.