Boston Beer Company Inc: Key Takeaways From Call With Management

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Boston Beer Company Inc: Key Takeaways From Call With Management

expect choppy performance. Longer term, UBS Cons.

management believes the category will likely remain a slowly declining market Q1 1.64 1.64

until some of these structural and cyclical pressures improve. Q2 3.65 3.65

Low End Remains Most Likely: Management highlighted that the improvement Q3E 4.21 3.83

Q4E (0.79) (0.47)

in June and July has not represented a meaningful change from the company's

12/26E 8.66 9.36

YTD depletion trajectory, particularly following a very weak May. If current trends

12/27E 8.78 10.62

persist, the company would likely finish toward the lower end of its volume 12/28E 9.38 11.87

outlook. Moving higher within the range would require some combination of

better category performance, improved Twisted Tea trends, and continued Sun Peter Grom

Cruiser growth as well as incremental benefits from innovation. Analyst

peter.grom@ubs.com

Sun Cruiser Runway Remains Long: The company expressed confidence that +1-212-713 3482

Sun Cruiser has significant growth runway, particularly as awareness and Chirac Ndetan

distribution remain underdeveloped in many parts of the country. While Associate Analyst

percentage growth should naturally moderate, the company believes similar chirac.ndetan@ubs.com

absolute case growth could remain achievable looking out to FY27. Management +1-212-649 7501

also emphasized that it does not intend to shift attention away from Sun Cruiser Arian Chakravarty

prematurely, viewing next year as another potentially high growth period for the Associate Analyst

brand. arian.chakravarty@ubs.com

+1-212-713 1474

Twisted Tea 2H Dynamic: Management highlighted Twisted Tea as the key

uncertainty for 2H performance, with improvement in the brand's current trend