Albertsons Cos Inc A Leaner Outlook - Downgrade To Neutral

研报英文原文证据摘录

Albertsons Cos Inc A Leaner Outlook - Downgrade To Neutral

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Albertsons Cos Inc Equities

United StatesA Leaner Outlook - Downgrade To Neutral

Food Retailers & Wholesalers

12-month rating Neutral

We downgrade to Neutral on a more challenging outlook Prior : Buy

We downgrade ACI to Neutral following several developments in the stock's narrative 12m price target US$12.00

post 1Q results, including 1) persistent consumer headwinds, impacting unit demand in Prior : US$20.00

the broader conventional grocery space, 2) its higher price positioning relative to peers,

Price (27 Jul 2026) US$11.46

3) near term execution risk as it consolidates 11 divisions into 4 regions, 4) downside risk

if elevated oil prices persist post 3Q, and 5) the recently announced departure of its RIC: ACI.N BBG: ACI US

President & CFO. This comes as Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) headwinds remain set to

Trading data and key metrics

pressure overall SSS through at least FY'27. If we assume the market is pricing in a 7x P/E

52-wk range US$19.86-11.03

on FY'28 adj. EPS, it would imply an -8.7% 3-year EPS CAGR (starting from FY'25

reported EPS, ex extra week). At a 6x multiple, it would imply a -3.9% CAGR. These Market cap. US$5.71b

numbers bracket our -7.2% 3-year EPS CAGR est. Note: we are below consensus, but it Shares o/s 498m (COM)

has yet to fully update 1Q. We lower our PT from $20 to $12. Free float 51%

Avg. daily volume ('000) 2,072

What's holding back Albertsons in the near term? Avg. daily value (m) US$30.5

ACI's operating model puts it in a tough spot. It's priced higher relative to peers, but its Common s/h equity (02/27E) US$1.66b

~2% op. margin means it has to be creative w. price. Consumers are pressured by rising P/BV (02/27E) 3.3x