Australian Resources: Who Delivers? Diversified Miners Guidance Review; & Spot Scenario

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Australian Resources: Who Delivers? Diversified Miners Guidance Review; & Spot Scenario

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Australian Resources Equities

AustralasiaWho Delivers? Diversified Miners Guidance

Review; & Spot Scenario Mining

Lachlan Shaw

Analyst

lachlan.shaw@ubs.com

Diversified Miners Guidance; & Spot Scenario +61-3-9242 6387

With FY27 diversified miners' guidance taking shape through June-Q and June-H Fintan Collins

reporting, ability to deliver comes back into focus. Across FY21–26, BHP remains the Associate Analyst

benchmark for guidance reliability, RIO has materially improved after a weaker period of fintan.collins@ubs.com

execution, and FMG's hematite business continues to stand out for consistency. MIN's +61-3-9242 6179

record is better than headline outcomes imply, reflecting portfolio transition and Annie Zhou

reshaping rather than core operational delivery. S32 has also delivered increasingly Associate Analyst

stable outcomes, with limited in-year guidance revision. Overall, we judge that the annie.zhou@ubs.com

sector enters FY27 with stronger production visibility and lower execution risk than has +61-2-9324 2000

been the case for several years. We also refresh our spot scenario analysis. At current Dim Ariyasinghe

spot prices, MIN and FMG offer the greatest positive fair value leverage across our Analyst

diversified mining coverage. dim.ariyasinghe@ubs.com

+61-3-9242 6385

Diversified Miners: Delivery against guidance in focus Levi Spry

With FY27 guidance now emerging through the remaining June-quarter production Analyst

reports and upcoming August reporting season, a review of FY21–26 diversified miners levi.spry@ubs.com

guidance delivery highlights a clear spectrum of operational consistency across the +61-3-9242 6709