SREIT Compass: RTS Link - more trips, new winners, uneven risks

研报英文原文证据摘录

SREIT Compass: RTS Link - more trips, new winners, uneven risks

Global Research

28 July 2026ab

SREIT Compass Equities

SingaporeRTS Link - more trips, new winners, uneven risks

Real Estate

Michael Lim

Overview Analyst

This report summarises statistics on valuations, performance and capital structures of michael-h.lim@ubs.com

the 39 Real Estate Investment Trusts (REIT) and Business Trusts listed in Singapore, with a +65-6495 5902

combined market capitalisation of US$80.4bn. In terms of YTD price performance, Terence Lee, CFA

SREITs are down 4.1% and Developers are up 2.7%. Analyst

terence.lee@ubs.com

Key statistics +65-6495 3570

SREITs are trading at 6.13% 2026E yield, +367bps to 10Y Government bonds. We

expect SREIT DPU growth of +4.3% p.a. (2025-28E), led by Healthcare +6.7% and

Hospitality +3.8%.

RTS scenarios: small base case, heavy bear case

A study (link) commissioned by the Singapore Business Federation, Restaurant

Association of Singapore and Singapore Retailers Association estimates the Johor Bahru-

Singapore RTS Link could generate 11.2m additional trips a year and shift S$1.05bn of

Singapore spending to Johor once it opens in January 2027. This would be partly offset

by S$756m of incremental Johor visitor spending in Singapore, concentrated in higher-

value categories, leaving a net consumption outflow of S$290m. Central Singapore is

the only region expected to record a net gain, favouring listed retail REITs with exposure

to Orchard Road and the city centre, including CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust,

Starhill Global REIT and Lendlease Global Commercial REIT. Suburban retail are

incremental losers. Varying the study's traffic and substitution assumptions, however,

shifts the outcome from the S$290m base to S$2.5b net outflow in the bear case, and