Risk Reward Update: Indra | Europe

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update: Indra | Europe

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Indra (IDR.MC)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

Group organic revenue growth (%) 9.0 14.9 17.0 11.0

Stated EBIT margin (%) 9.5 10.3 10.8 11.2

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

PEM-backed Defence backlog conversion. RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

New large Defence, Space and ATM contract Higher Spanish/EU defence spending

wins. Faster PEM execution and domestic market- Sales / 7,107

Updated CMD targets and potential earlier share gains Revenue 6,049 7,175

delivery of the €10bn group sales ambition. Accretive Space M&A (e.g. EM&E re- (€, mn) 6,862

Accretive M&A. emergence)

EBIT margin expansion and improved FCF Further international contract wins

conversion. 776

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE EBIT 593 804

(€, mn)

Lower Spanish defence spending 706GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE Governance and Execution challenges

Slower expansion execution (e.g, M&A

10-20% North America integration or capacity ramp up) Net income

419 526 10-20% UK Competitive threats in Space business (€, mn)

60-70% Europe ex UK AI disruption stalls Minsait growth / reshaping 469

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate OWNERSHIP POSITIONING EPS 2.99

2.38 3.11View explanation of regional hierarchies here (€)

Inst. Owners, % Active 75.3% 2.69

MS ALPHA MODELS HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 2.6x

HF Sector Net Exposure 13.2% Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

3/5 3 Month Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research MOST Horizon

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored trends.