J.P. Morgan U.S. FTM 24 Jul 26: DLR; DOW and More. Fri Jul 24 2026

研报英文原文证据摘录

J.P. Morgan U.S. FTM 24 Jul 26: DLR; DOW and More. Fri Jul 24 2026

ow anticipating double digit core FFOPS growth from 2026-2028. We

now estimate core FFOPS of $8.20 in 2026 (excluding promote income; $8.72 if included) growing by 11.0% y/y excluding

promote income and18.0% if included. We look for core FFOPS of $9.07 in 2027, up 10.6% y/y (excluding promote income in

2026), and $10.05 in 2028, up 11.1%. We maintain our Overweight rating and establish a December 2027 price target of $235

(vs. Dec-26 PT of $230 prior).

Dow (Jeffrey J. Zekauskas) (DOW, OW, PT $40.00)

Conflicted

We think the magnitude of Dow’s planned cost reduction efforts differentiates it from other petrochemical companies. We think

that Dow should realistically be able to reduce its cost structure by $1b over the next three years, with most of the heavy cost-

out lifting accomplished in 2026-2027. Dow’s goal is to reduce its employee count by 4,500 people. It is now implementing a

55% staff reduction (2,745 people) which is to save $200m in 2H:26 or about $800m annually. The average cost per employee

under this scheme is between $160k/person and $180k/person. Dow in addition, has a site-closure program encompassing the

Barry, Wales 331m lb siloxanes plant – closed in 1H:26 – the Bohlen, Germany 1.1b lb ethylene plant (to be closed end of

2027), and chlor-alkali assets in Schkopau, Germany. Cost reductions from these European asset closure efforts should total

$50m in 2H:26 and $200m in total. Dow’s stated goal is to deliver about $3b in cost savings through 2028 from a 2025 base. It

is more difficult at this juncture to knit together satisfactorily the components of the other features of its cost reduction efforts

and revenue benefits. Dow’s aspirations represent upside to its earnings potential.