Brazil

研报英文原文证据摘录

Brazil

ooks more consistent

with differences in field dates and methodologies than with a Source: J.P. Morgan.

clean, one-direction shift - and suggests that it is too soon to Importantly, the government has responded with the

rush into conclusions about the outcome at national level announcement of Brasil Soberano III, expanding the support

(Figure 1). framework announced last year with up to R$18.5bn in credit

Figure 1: Runoff vote intention lines (Treasury resources reallocated from unused envelopes

% of the total votes, aggregated from various polls plus BNDES funding). The program targets tariff-exposed

50 sectors (including products covered by Section 232 and Sec-

45 tion 301 measures) and extends to strategic sectors tied to the

40 external accounts and supply-chain concerns (including fertil-

F. Bolsonaro izers and critical minerals). It offers differentiated lines 30

Lula (working capital, export working capital, investment and cap- 25

None or undecided ital goods, plus a low-cost line linked to critical-minerals 20

15 transformation), with official messaging emphasizing limited

10 direct fiscal impact via previously authorized resources. For

Jun-25 Aug-25 Oct-25 Dec-25 Feb-26 Apr-26 Jun-26 Aug-26 the macro story, the key issues are less the headline envelope

Source: JOTA and J.P. Morgan and more (i) take-up and timing, (ii) whether it shifts the

The polling cadence should remain elevated and intensify credit impulse at the margin in 2H26, and (iii) how it interacts

over the coming weeks. Over the next few days, the calendar with the broader set of credit and debt-renegotiation initia-

includes the potential release of surveys from Jota (26), Nex- tives implemented this year.

us (27), and AtlasIntel (28). Beyond headline vote intention,