Monthly Auto Review: Expect 16.7 mn US LV SAAR Helped by Strong Fleet Sales and a Resilient Consumer; ATPs Lower, Incentives Slightly Higher

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Monthly Auto Review: Expect 16.7 mn US LV SAAR Helped by Strong Fleet Sales and a Resilient Consumer; ATPs Lower, Incentives Slightly Higher

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

24 July 2026

Monthly Auto Review

Expect 16.7 mn US LV SAAR Helped by Strong Fleet

Sales and a Resilient Consumer; ATPs Lower,

Incentives Slightly Higher

Quick take: We expect July LV SAAR to track 16.7 mn, marking a sequential Autos & Auto Parts

ACuptick from June’s 16.5 mn pace, slightly above Wards/Omdia’s 16.6 mn Rajat Gupta

projection, below J.D. Power’s 16.9 mn estimate, and sitting at the upper end of (1-212) 622-6382

our OEM channel check range (~16.1–16.7 mn). The wide dispersion in rajat.gupta@jpmorgan.com

projections appears to be linked to fleet sales uncertainty, coupled with sensitivity Jash Patwa

around SAAR factors. Despite ongoing macro noise, the US consumer continues to (1-212) 622-5472

demonstrate notable resilience, supported by factors such as decelerating inflation, jash.patwa@jpmchase.com

modest real wage growth in June, improving consumer sentiment, buoyant capital Yash Beswala

markets, and strengthening employment trends. However, with renewed escalation in (1-212) 622-0028

yash.beswala@jpmchase.com

the Middle East, we see potential headwinds for consumer sentiment, energy prices, J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

and disposable income, keeping the new vehicle market on uncertain footing. Model

year 2027 rollout cadence has been slower y/y (as per Cox), and while early

indications suggest no major pricing inflation is imminent, the 2H/2027 SAAR

trajectory will hinge on automaker pricing strategies during the model year

changeover. Reflecting YTD strength, we are modestly raising our 2026 LV

SAAR assumption higher to 16.0 mn from 15.8 mn previously.