Hyundai Rotem: Downgrade to N; 2Q OP miss and lack of near-term order clarity

研报英文原文证据摘录

Hyundai Rotem: Downgrade to N; 2Q OP miss and lack of near-term order clarity

Prev Cur Δ

Adj. EPS - 26E (W) 9,761 7,777 -20.3%

missed; the company guided to Rail Solutions margin expansion from 2027 as Adj. EPS - 27E (W) 12,818 10,653 -16.9%

higher-margin export projects (e.g., Morocco) ramp.

• Earnings checklist follow-up (please refer to table 1): From the conference Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

and IR follow-up, we received incremental color on: 1) defense export sales Adj. EPS (W)

2025A 2026E 2027E

trajectory and Poland production pace, 2) export OPM above the 30% mark, Q1 1,451 1,845A 2,046

3) domestic sales and OP outlook, and 4) reconfirmation of Poland K2 PL sales Q2 1,747 1,707A 2,664

trajectory. However, we did not get much of an update on the order pipeline. Q3 1,819 1,972 2,955

Q4 2,038 2,254 2,988

All in all, we lower our 2026E/2027E OP estimates by 21%/16%, mainly FY 7,055 7,777 10,653

driven by the export defense outlook reset: we lower our 2026 Poland EC1

sales assumption to ~W60-70B per quarter and trim Poland EC2 ASP Style Exposure

assumptions (for both GF and PL) after the headline sales miss. With a lower

EC1 miss, we step export OPM down to the mid-30s from the high-30s. For

domestic, we raise sales estimates on higher mass production, but revise

domestic OPM lower as the project appears margin-dilutive.

• Order update: Pipeline visibility remains limited: Peru is still guided as the

nearest-term signing (expected 2H26). Poland EC3 discussions are in

preparation (specs and GF/PL mix), Iraq appears delayed (management

targeting year-end at the earliest), and Romania MBT RFP is expected this year

with an award timeline around 2027.

• PT cut to W180K, D/G to N: Our prior bullish view was anchored on a strong