WEX Inc.: 2Q26 Recap: Fuel Price Help + Return to Buybacks + Pricing Opportunities Drive Nice Earnings Upside and Stock Reaction

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WEX Inc.: 2Q26 Recap: Fuel Price Help + Return to Buybacks + Pricing Opportunities Drive Nice Earnings Upside and Stock Reaction

y (+10% vs. SPX

-1%), a rare win for the group, we think in large part driven by the commitment of Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

a majority of FCF to the buyback. We establish a $185 Dec-27 price target and Adj. EPS ($)

maintain our Neutral rating, as we’re not fully ready to underwrite a sustainable 2025A 2026E 2027E

return to targeted organic revenue growth of 5-10%. Q1 3.51 4.15A 4.56

Q2 3.95 5.35A 5.36

Q3 4.59 5.76 6.87

• 2Q Summary. Revenue of $754M came in ahead of $727-747M guidance and Q4 4.11 5.04 5.94

Street $741M, driven by average US retail fuel prices of $4.70 ($0.40 or 9% FY 16.16 20.30 22.72

ahead of $4.30 guidance), helped ~1% by forex for a +10% macro lift to

Style Exposure revenue growth. Macro-neutral revenue landed at the midpoint of the range.

Adj. EBIT margins were up 280bps y/y (about in line with prior JPMe

+290bps), driven primarily by fuel prices. Adj EPS of $5.35 came in ahead of

$5.08 Street expectations and $4.93-5.13 guidance, with fuel prices driving

25% of 35% y/y adj EPS growth (share repurchases contributed 25bps).

• Segment Summary. Controlling for fuel/FX, Mobility segment revenue was

up ~3% y/y (vs. JPMe @ 2%), roughly stable sequentially, as transaction

growth improved (to roughly flat y/y), offsetting a 2ppt drag vs. expectations

from late fees driven by lower incidents. Organic growth was driven relatively

evenly across (1) pricing, (2) BP portfolio addition, and (3) underlying growth.

Encouragingly, WEX sees $15M in pricing benefits supporting 2H growth.

Benefits segment revenue came in a touch light at +6% y/y vs +7% Street.

Headline SaaS account growth of 2.4% slowed from 4% in 1Q to the slowest