Canada

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Canada

dministration to extract concessions from lenging—and it’s hard to see scope for a breakthrough now,

Canada. Market reaction thus far has been fairly muted, although perhaps it is darkest before the dawn. For now, risks

implying expectations for a low probability of follow- to growth over the rest of the year are clearly tilted to the

through. The macro impact would be modest: according to downside, even as markets have been steadfast in pricing the

estimates from the Yale Budget Lab, the effective U.S. tariff BoC to hike by year’s end.

rate on Canada would rise around 2.3%-pts to about 7.6%.

This would be the highest effective rate facing Canada since BoC core measures dip below 2%

the trade war began, but it still would be toward the lower end

Headline CPI moderated to 2.8%oya in June from 3.2% inof effective US tariff rates across countries.

May, as gasoline prices pulled back and measures of core

Figure 1: Effective US tariff rate on imports from Canada inflation came in softer than forecast. The BoC’s preferred

%, based on 2024 trade data core measures cooled to a 1.9%oya average (Figure 2)—the

Forecast first sub-2% reading in almost six years—while the exclu- 8

sionary core (ex. food and energy) is up just 1.8% over the

6 past year.

4 Figure 2: Average of the BoC preferred core measures

% change

Jan 25 Jul 25 Jan 26 Jul 26 6 %oya

Source: Yale Budget Lab, J.P. Morgan

For the Bank of Canada, the main effect of this unprecedented

action by the US is renewed uncertainty that may further 2

weigh on hiring and investment. While the BoC has indicated %3m, saar

that further trade policy uncertainty might warrant easier poli- 0

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

cy, bad news apparently comes in pairs: crude oil prices Source: Statistics Canada, J.P. Morgan