The Weekly Worldview: Following the Stars?

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The Weekly Worldview: Following the Stars?

Idea

July 27, 2026 04:01 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMGlobal Economic Briefing | North America Seth B Carpenter

Chief Global Economist

The Weekly Worldview: Seth.Carpenter@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley & Co. International plc (DIFC Branch)+1 212 761-0370

Rajeev Sibal

Senior Global EconomistFollowing the Stars? Rajeev.Sibal@morganstanley.com +971 4 709-7201

Central banks globally face a common challenge: calibrating Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Arunima Sinha

Global Economistpolicy as growth, inflation, productivity and fiscal dynamics

Arunima.Sinha@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4125

reshape neutral rates. We expect the ECB to hike in September,

the BoJ in December and the Fed to remain on hold this year, but Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.

Chiwoong Lee

Principal Global Economista structurally higher r* could keep policy tighter for longer.

Chiwoong.Lee@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8920

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMCentral bank meetings are coming up this week, but we expect the typical August Mayank Phadke, CFA

summer lull to start with these decisions. We do not expect a hike from the ECB Economist

Mayank.Phadke@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1531

until September and one from the BoJ only in December. But the debate around the

Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited

calibration of policy is only starting.

Priyan Mody

Economist

The neutral policy rate, or r*, is inherently unobservable, but former Chair Powell Priyan.Mody@morganstanley.com +91 22 6996-1855

would say “we know it by its works,” meaning that a policy setting above r* should

slow the economy and one below it should boost the economy. r* evolves with

productivity, demographics, fiscal dynamics and global capital flows, all of which are