Old Memory: Divergent Trends in the Near Term

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Old Memory: Divergent Trends in the Near Term

Idea

July 27, 2026 09:00 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+MGreater China Semiconductors | Asia Pacific Daniel Yen, CFA

Equity Analyst

Old Memory: Divergent Trends Daniel.Yen@morganstanley.comCharlie Chan +886 2 2730-2863

Charlie.Chan@morganstanley.com +886 2 2730-1725

in the Near Term Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Daisy Dai, CFA

Recent memory cycle debate + CSP FCF concern + China Equity Analyst

Daisy.Dai@morganstanley.com +852 2848-7310

memory position offload have caused a derating of old memory

Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+

stocks, but we see stronger DDR4 pricing hikes and Tiffany Yeh

unprecedented legacy flash pricing power into 3Q. We think 1.0x Equity Analyst

Tiffany.Yeh@morganstanley.com +886 2 7712-3032

2028E BVPS offers good downside support.

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Changing tide on mainstream memory: According to Trendforce ( Exhibit 1 ), 3Q26 Ethan Jia

Research Associate

conventional DRAM mixed pricing is expected to increase by 13-18% Q/Q. Ethan.Jia@morganstanley.com +852 3963-2287

Specifically, PC DDR5 pricing is seen rising by 15-20% Q/Q, server DDR5 pricing by

13-18% Q/Q, mobile LPDDR5(X) by 8-13% Q/Q, and NAND pricing by 10-15% Q/Q.

Further, for 4Q26, Trendforce estimates price hikes of 3-8% Q/Q for conventional

DRAM and 0-5% Q/Q for NAND. These estimated growth rates seem lower than

some investors previously expected.

Greater China Technology Semiconductors

Yet, recently, we've seen stronger legacy memory pricing: Similar to our prior Asia Pacific

Industry View Attractive

note (link), we believe DDR4 could enjoy continued monthly pricing hikes in 3Q.

Compared to our pricing expectations one month ago, we believe CSPs are willing to