Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– Kirin Holdings- Kirin(2503.T)Holdings (2503.T)

Will take time for health sciences business to drive firm-wide earnings

PRICE TARGET ¥2,700 EQUAL-WEIGHT THESIS

F12/27e EPS ¥205 x P/E 13x. We assume P/E remains at the depressed levels seen since the We expect gradual earnings growth

pandemic. We expect two factors to hinder upside for the shares: 1) the health science overseas and continued growth in Health

business needing some time before it can drive earnings growth, and 2) weak prospects in the Science business, but given the high comps

near term for enhanced shareholder returns. from F12/25 results and current phase

where profit growth in pharma business is

¥2,735 hard to expect, firm-wide growth will likely

Consensus Price Target Distribution ¥2,400.00 ¥3,250.00 slow for the time being. Impact of share

MS PT buybacks tied to business divestments also

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates appears priced into the stock.

At the same time, we view Health Science

business as a future growth driver, but think

RISK REWARD CHART it will take time to reach sufficient scale to

materially drive overall growth, and thus

expectations for this growth story can't yet

JPY ¥3,500¥3,500(+20.36%)¥3,500(+20.36%)(+20.36%) drive multiple expansion. Near term, cost

inflation risks for F12/26-F12/27 linked to the

Middle East are also a concern.

¥2,908¥2,908¥2,908

¥2,700¥2,700(-7.15%)¥2,700(-7.15%)(-7.15%) Consensus Rating Distribution

27% Overweight

67% Equal-weight

1600 ¥2,000¥2,000(-31.22%)¥2,000(-31.22%)(-31.22%) 7% Underweight

MS Rating

800 Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

0 Risk Reward Themes

JUL '25 JAN '26 JUL '26 JUL '27 Secular Growth: Negative