Rio Tinto Limited: 1H26 result preview – expecting solid all round performance; growth and productivity in key focus

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Rio Tinto Limited: 1H26 result preview – expecting solid all round performance; growth and productivity in key focus

ndiaSecuritiesPrivate LimitedAustralia Limited/ J.P.

can’t be reconciled in the financial statements, but we expect management to

Zane Guo

note positive progress post-restructuring.

(61-3) 9633-4020

• M&A / Glencore. While we don’t expect any meaningful update, the market zane.guo@jpmorgan.com

will continue to question whether RIO goes back for GLEN and what other J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

M&A is potentially on the cards (if any).

• Divestments. The company continues to look for buyers of its Mineral Sands, Key Changes (FYE Dec)

Borates, and some infrastructure assets (target $5bn-10bn). Prev Cur Δ

Adj. net income - 26E ($ mn) 14,577 13,647 -6.4%

• Cost inflation. The company is likely to reiterate cost guidance given it’s an Adj. net income - 27E ($ mn) 15,011 14,265 -5.0%

interim result, but management comments will highlight accelerated inflation

in relation to the Middle East conflict, in our view. Half Yearly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

Adj. EBITDA ($ mn)

Divisional Focus Points 2025A 2026E 2027E

H1 9,553 12,763 13,800

• Iron ore: Key forward-looking issues remain: progress on the development of H2FY 11,74521,298 12,33225,095 13,97727,777

depletion replacement mines, containing cost inflation (diesel / labour),

managing the logistics chain through 2H26-2028 when port outload capacity Style Exposure

will be reduced during capital works, integrating the new product strategy

(lower Fe grades / lower strip ratios), navigating any CMRG price discussions,

and ramping up Simandou successfully. IOC has also struggled from a

performance point of view which will also be a focus.

• Copper: Oyu Toloi remains the highest priority area with regards to the