Japan Equity Strategy: Weekly Market Update and Dashboard: Jul 27, 2026

研报英文原文证据摘录

Japan Equity Strategy: Weekly Market Update and Dashboard: Jul 27, 2026

※ Please also refer to “US Equity Strategy: Hyperscalers vs. AI Hardware, AI Capex & Monetization, Momentum

Unwind, 2Q Earnings “ (Dubravko, Bhupinder, 7/20) Jul 27, 2026Equity Strategy (Rie Nishihara/Yong Guo)

Hyperscalers vs. AI Hardware, AI Capex & Monetization, Momentum Unwind, 2Q Earnings

◼AI cycle remains intact, but investor focus shifts from capex expansion to monetization validation: The AI investment cycle continues to

expand, though market attention is increasingly moving from “how much to spend” to “how to generate returns.” Meta’s move to sell excess AI

compute capacity and Anthropic Mythos-related security concerns accelerating cloud migration are early signs that AI infrastructure is

beginning to enter a revenue-generating phase. This broadening of use cases is likely to support long-term growth across the entire AI value

chain—cloud, DCs, semiconductors, and enterprise software. Over the medium term, we see better risk-reward in the hyperscaler complex (i.e.,

AI Midstream) relative to AI Hardware.

◼The key focus this earnings season is hyperscaler capex guidance and the evidence behind ROIC: AI-related capex in 2026 is projected to

reach ~$870 billion, with hyperscalers accounting for ~$750 billion of that total (consensus). Google, Amazon, and Meta are each planning

capex expansion of 40–50%+ heading into next year, and we continue to see upside to market consensus estimates. That said, investors are no

longer focused solely on the continuation of elevated spending—they are demanding concrete evidence of future ROIC and monetization. If

datacenter utilization improves and AI service revenues expand, the momentum trade could rotate back from AI Hardware toward hyperscalers.