APAC Refining: ‘Golden Age‘ is now consensus; raising 2026 GRM to $30/bbl as Houthis threaten product supply, and exploring bull/bear scenarios

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APAC Refining: ‘Golden Age‘ is now consensus; raising 2026 GRM to $30/bbl as Houthis threaten product supply, and exploring bull/bear scenarios

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

27 July 2026

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APAC Refining

“Golden Age” is now consensus; raising 2026 GRM to

$30/bbl as Houthis threaten product supply, and

exploring bull/bear scenarios

Asia diesel cracks have rallied from a bottom of $39/bbl in late June, to $81/bbl Head of Asia Energy & Chemicals |

currently on the back of: (1) improved demand for backup powergen due to El Asia EV Battery

Niño; (2) rising LNG prices as Europe rushes to refill storage and China re-enters Parsley Ong AC

the LNG market, and (3) renewed concerns on Middle East supply after the 17 June (65) 6882-8578

US-Iran ceasefire was declared “over” on 8 July. Houthi’s attacks on Saudi parsley.rh.ong@jpmorgan.com

Arabia’s refinery infrastructure over the weekend bring additional risk to the J.P.J.P. MorganMorgan SecuritiesSecurities Singapore(Asia Pacific)PrivateLimited/Limited/J.P.

market, against a backdrop of decade-low product inventories and continued oil Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited

product export restrictions from China and Russia. We raise our 2026 GRM Michelle Wong

forecast to $30/bbl (previous: $25/bbl), factoring in record-high 2026 diesel cracks (852) 2800 8556

of $61/bbl, which already bakes in de-escalation from current levels. We continue michelle.wong@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P.