Off the call / updating estimates

研报英文原文证据摘录

Off the call / updating estimates

UpdateMfor 2026-2029 (vs. previously a lower tax rate in 2027-2029). The change in the tax

rate alone brought down our 2027-2029 EPS by 6.2%. Overall our 2026 EPS moves

up by +3.9%, while our 2027-2028 EPS move down 2%. Our new Price Target is

€520 (vs. €540 previously) off the back of our higher tax rate assumptions. Key

takeaways from the conference call:

F&LG +1% OSG in 2Q26 vs. VA css +1.5%

° Current trading / exit: Mgmt did not comment on current trends in July

given the limited number of weeks and that it is a small month within

Q3. Regarding the Middle East, they noted they exited Q2 in negative

territory but much more muted than the declines they saw throughout

Q2. Looking ahead at Q3 when asked about the tough comparison base,

CFO Cabanis the comp base is "optically more difficult" than Q2 as it

mirrors the easier comps of 2024. Overall she notes, that "it is quite

comparable".

° Price / Mix / Volume: Regarding F&LG's +1% OSG in 2Q26 / +2% OSG if

excluding the ME impact, mgmt noted that pricing was "moderate" (MSe

+LSD%), while "volume and mix were overall flat".

° Nationality clusters: As per mgmt the American cluster drove the

growth at F&LG in Q2 with +HSD% (and mgmt stated a sharp

acceleration in US offshore demand in Q2 on top of tangible local

demand improvement), the Korean cluster also grew, while the

Europeans, Japanese and Chinese were flattish yoy, and the Middle

Eastern cluster was still negative (less than in Q1). Regarding the Asian

clientele, mgmt noted that they spent less in Q2 in Asia and more in

Europe and Japan (explaining the acceleration in both Europe and Japan

in Q2). Specifically on the Chinese cluster, mgmt stated that Chinese

local and touristic demand were together flattish in H1, with offshore