Soft consumer complicates near-term outlook

研报英文原文证据摘录

Soft consumer complicates near-term outlook

Idea

July 27, 2026 11:53 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+MMyer Holdings Ltd | Asia Pacific Julia M de Sterke

Equity Analyst

Soft consumer complicates Julia.De.Sterke@morganstanley.comMelinda K Baxter +61 2 9770-1658

Melinda.Baxter@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-1176

near-term outlook Mac Ross, CFA

What’s Changed Mac.Ross@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-1579

Myer Holdings Ltd (MYR.AX) From To

Price Target A$0.55 A$0.29

Near-term challenges from soft macro backdrop, however long

term self help levers to rebuild margin remain intact Myer Holdings Ltd (MYR.AX, MYR AU)

Australia Consumer | Australia

Key Takeaways Stock Rating Overweight

Industry View Cautious

MYR trading update highlighted 2H26 sales slowdown plus elevated promotions Price target A$0.29

driven by soft consumer and elevated competition. Up/downside to price target (%) 32

Shr price, close (Jul 27, 2026) A$0.22

Trading consistent with recent channel checks: i) elevated competition from 52-Week Range A$0.70-0.22

Sh out, dil, curr (mn) 1,731

Amazon in July; ii) consumer under pressure; iii) weather impacts. Mkt cap, curr (mn) A$381

EV, curr (mn) A$413

Self-help margin recovery story remains, but near-term progress complicated by Avg daily trading value (mn) A$3

macro environment; MS cautious on near-term consumer outlook. Fiscal Year Ending 07/25 07/26e 07/27e 07/28e

MSe earnings cuts 25-35%, reflecting more protracted GP margin and sales EPS (A$)** 0.029 0.027 0.036 0.045

Prior EPS (A$)** - 0.036 0.054 0.065

weakness, driving significant operating deleverage. ModelWare EPS (A$) 0.029 0.027 0.036 0.045

EPS (A$)§ 0.035 0.032 0.042 0.049

Maintain OW: self-help margin recovery opportunity remains. Catalysts: i) Sydney Revenue, net (A$ mn) 3,674 4,088 4,130 4,216