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JPM TECH SKETCH: SPOT/EBAY/DDOG Q2 Previews – AI Tier, Vinted vs. Depop & Seasonality’s Greetings, LIME Initiate at O/W, BSP Initiate at Neutral
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JPM TECH SKETCH: SPOT/EBAY/DDOG Q2 Previews – AI Tier, Vinted vs. Depop & Seasonality’s Greetings, LIME Initiate at O/W, BSP Initiate at Neutral
month than I’ve had in the last year. EBAY is decidedly in the ‘heavily debated’ camp with the
Bears getting MUCH louder recently. Seemingly, ‘everyone’ wants to short it if there is any hint of GMV or margin
weakness. Vinted is now an increasing part of the Bear Case as they more aggressively attack the secondary fashion market
in the US in a direct challenge to EBAY’s about-to-be-acquired Depop. Put another way, EBAY hasn’t been this interesting
of a stock in a LONG time. Pay attention this quarter. We could have fireworks. See my full Preview below.
- DDOG Q226 Earnings Preview – Seasonality’s Greetings: DDOG enters Q2 earnings as a crowded long despite rallying
over +80% YTD. (It’s not quite as crowded of a long as SNOW, but in a similar ballpark. Is some fast money long SNOW
and short DDOG? Sure. But DDOG is still a crowded long overall in my book.) Much like last quarter, investor expectations
are elevated as tailwinds from Anthropic are expected to continue to ramp, potentially offset by ‘share losses’ at OpenAI
courtesy of PANW’s Chronosphere. Put more plainly: investors expect a sizeable beat and raise.Nothing less will be
tolerated at ~19.5x FY26E Revenue. See my full Preview below. TL;DR: Q2 Revenue growth bogey is +36% Y/Y and they
need to guide to a 1 point acceleration (at least) in Q3 (+31.5% Y/Y) and take up the full year guide including the implied
Q4.
- LIME Initiating at Overweight – Scooting Ahead of the Pack: From Doug’s LIME Initiating at Overweight – Scooting
Ahead of the Pack: “Lime’s Vertically Integrated Platform Is a Key Advantage. Lime operates a vertically integrated
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