Record-High Multiple Amid Potential Earnings Slowdown; Downgrade to Underweight

研报英文原文证据摘录

Record-High Multiple Amid Potential Earnings Slowdown; Downgrade to Underweight

North America InsightM

Exhibit 1: LAUR's premium reached Exhibit 2: Our long-term estimates

all-time highs are below consensus

NTM P/E MSe vs. Consensus Change

25x LAUR US Higher Ed. Brazil Higher Ed. Net Revenue Adj. EBITDA Adj. Net Income

5%

20x

0%

15x

-5%

10x

-10%

5x

-15%

0x

Jul-23 Sep-23 Nov-23 Jan-24 Mar-24 May-24 Jul-24 Sep-24 Nov-24 Jan-25 Mar-25 May-25 Jul-25 Sep-25 Nov-25 Jan-26 Mar-26 May-26 -20%

2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E

Source: FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research

Source: Visible Alpha, Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Seeing the value levers more clearly. With company disclosure offering only a

high-level view of the underlying markets in Mexico and Peru, we went beyond

reported information through regulatory and market-data analysis, competitive and

geographic mapping, campus-level TAM and return modeling, delivery-format and

unit-economics analysis, operating and margin benchmarking, and discussions with

sector participants in both countries — a depth of primary and proprietary work

uncommon for the name. We first screened Laureate's revenue and margin levers for

their likely bottom-line impact, then organized the report around three debates: (i)

how much enrollment and return new campuses can add; (ii) whether Peru's online

shift expands access and margins or ultimately leads to ticket dilution, weaker

retention and cannibalization; and (iii) how much structural margin upside remains in

Mexico after the main efficiency gains have been captured. This framework gave us

greater confidence in separating scalable earnings drivers from opportunities that

are more limited or already reflected in valuation.

The optimization phase is ending; growth now depends on expanding the