JPM | APAC THEMATICS - Semis: Positioning unwind continues / Bull vs Bear: 5x key arguments / Fed: Expect a dovish surprise / Calls today: 9am HK on China Politburo & 11am on US Equity Strategy

研报英文原文证据摘录

JPM | APAC THEMATICS - Semis: Positioning unwind continues / Bull vs Bear: 5x key arguments / Fed: Expect a dovish surprise / Calls today: 9am HK on China Politburo & 11am on US Equity Strategy

Specialist Sales

APAC Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

27 July 2026

JPM | APAC THEMATICS - Semis: Positioning unwind continues /

Bull vs Bear: 5x key arguments / Fed: Expect a dovish surprise /

Calls today: 9am HK on China Politburo & 11am on US Equity

Strategy

Matthew See

+852 2800 8889

matthew.see@jpmorgan.com

APAC Thematics focuses on key macro views, market debates, and favoured investment themes.

THE BIG PICTURE: The semis sell-off continues, SOX -2%. Notable decliners (i) Nvidia -5% on circular financing

concerns & whether their line is blurring from a capex beneficiary to a hybrid capex spender, (ii) ASML -6% post an article

in The Information citing China progress in ramping DUV lithography tools, (iii) Sandisk -11% with memory under pressure

in the wake of CXMT IPO euphoria +465%.

The bull-bear debate in Semis. The ongoing unwind in Semi stocks continues to dominate discussions. JPM’s research house

view remains in the long-term bullish camp. APAC tech head Gokul flagged last week that the S/D deficit in silicon continues

to grow and there’s no signs of any uplift in inventory. But to help inform discussions, we outline the 5x bull vs bear

arguments we hear.

On the macro front, positives on Oil and Rates. On oil - Trump confirmed Iran negotiations restarted. A nearish-term TACO

was expected… so no big surprise. That said, further declines in oil will likely require movement in negotiation stances or an

uplift in movement through the Strait. On rates, we expect the Fed to dovishly surprise and keep rates on-hold tomorrow (vs

a 25bps hike being 38% discounted).